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If there is 2015 deficit of 2.3 BLN BGN for 18.24 BLN BGN incomes for 20.54 BLN BGN expenditure, then after 2-3 years with deficits from 2014 onwards (according to http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/eory/2014/11/26/2426982_deficit_i_oshte_dulgove_v_bjudjet_2015/), the debt will increase, but probably even this year Bulgaria credit rating may be speculative. So many companies and banks will also be with speculative ratings and you may check the high default rate in wikipedia, often in such banks in Hungary or Greece the deposits decline and with currency board there will be a decline in GDP as well according to quantitative theory of money for a few years. So the budget policy may push the economy in crisis. When they realize what has been done and the deficit is paid back less then 16 BLN BGN expenditure will be possible compared with 20.5 BLN BGN in 2015. Provided tax rate are increased, less of taxes will be collected. There will also be interest for the new loan. So it looks like a stupid bluffing for the future of the country. Why is that? Because EU is loosing support in Bulgaria? Why EU is delaying its funds for Bulgaria and there is only verbal support, do they have reasonable doubts for their support in CEE? What will happen next year with low Russian RUB, when there will be high imports in Europe, CEE and Bulgaria from Russia and low export from CEE, Europe, Bulgaria to Russia? Maybe the same will be valid for Greece. What will this mean for high unemployment, high bad loans, social tensions and currency pegs in the region? What will happen with the Austrian banks exposed to the region, when their rating is declined, an outflow of deposits may be expected for the new assessment of risks and their obligations will be with very high interest.

I would like to ask the Government and in particular BNB (former colleagues) to stop illegal digital surveillance (e.g I see in my router other MAC addresses, some Email encryptions are broken) and not to use their, administration, business (banks or telecoms) connection for crimes against me. I understand you have hidden from society objectives, and for me revealing them, you are ready to everything for getting rid of me.

I worked for the Research of the Bulgarian National Bank just before the 2009 crisis related with Kalin Hristov, Statti Stattev, Mariela Nenova, Rosen Rosenov (IMF), Andrey Vassilev, Stoevsky (ECB), Tsvetan Tsalinsky (EC,ECB), Karagyozova and they on purpose organized the crisis with providing a lot of cheap loans with the intention to increase later interest rate for profits, which led to low economic growth for the past 6 years and substantial bad loans as in CEE: similar to e.g. Romania, Croatia... In view of the Corporate Commercial Bank supervision case, consider If you could trust them further, considering my arguments. (1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I would like to ask my former colleagues from the research of the Bulgarian National Bank a little bit before 2009 crisis, to read carefully the following lines of legislation, although one of them stated “In Bulgaria, everything is possible...” or “These commercial banks are to big we(BNB) to rule them”. I know you have a lot of connections in Government, Law, form the time with some of you I studded in Budapest, Soros CEU,but the political situation is quite unstable now and everything is possible. See from here a case with the Sofia Customs (who is behind this story and what else I might expect from them): facebook.com /pages/Similarto-Ivan-Hadjiisky-Bulgarian-Sociologist/632934613466942?ref=hl

for this story:

Районна митническа дирекция 

Адрес: София, ул. "Веслец" 84

Уважаеми началник на ТМУ СТОЛИЧНА,

ЖАЛБА 

Глава девета

ДОКУМЕНТНИ ПРЕСТЪПЛЕНИЯ

Чл. 308. (1) Който състави неистински официален документ или преправи съдържанието на официален документ с цел да бъде използуван, се наказва за подправка на документ с лишаване от свобода до три години.

(2) (Нова - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г., изм., бр. 27 от 2009 г.) Когато предмет на деянието по ал. 1 са удостоверения за наследници или актове за гражданско състояние, нотариални актове или нотариални удостоверявания, български или чуждестранни документи за самоличност, документи за завършено образование или за придобита квалификация, свидетелства за управление на превозни средства, за регистрация на превозни средства, визови стикери, други документи, удостоверяващи прехвърляне или учредяване на право на собственост или на други вещни права, правоспособност, лични или регистрационни данни, наказанието е лишаване от свобода до осем години.

(3) (Нова - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г., изм., бр. 33 от 2011 г., в сила от 27.05.2011 г.) Наказанието е лишаване от свобода до десет години, когато:

1. деянието по ал. 1 е с цел улесняване извършването на престъпление по чл. 108а, ал. 1 или 2;

2. деянието по ал. 2 е с цел имотна облага.

Чл. 310. (1) (Изм. и доп. - ДВ, бр. 26 от 2004 г.) Ако престъплението по чл. 308, ал. 1, и чл. 309, ал. 1 и 2 е извършено от длъжностно лице в кръга на службата му, наказанието е лишаване от свобода до пет години, а в случаите по чл. 308, ал. 2 и 3 - лишаване от свобода до дванадесет години, като съдът може да постанови и лишаване от право по чл. 37, ал. 1, точка 6.

See also, from the Facebook page , how Telecom Austria, which is a telecom, close to European Commission, was trying to involve me in a crime to conceal the Bulgarian National Bank Researchers crimes for creating the 2009 crisis. (e.g Stoevsky paper for Import that omits on purpose credits as an explanatory variable or Tsvetan Tsalinsky Economic Review that say that the high industry load before crisis means that there will be more investments...or Andrey Vassilev purposeful wrong assumptions in models for consumption smoothing in future).

Last week 6.11.2014, by coincidence, I received the reciprocal reply to my letter for a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) you may see at facebook.com/pages/Georgi-Chinkov In particular, I had announced to the Sofia Customs in Sept. 2014 that, when I've received a cheap ip-camera and separately a cheap mini-pc banana-pi from china, they were announced from the online stores for lower prices and I have to pay additional VAT.

I received a letter from Sofia Customs and they tried to make me start a new procedure, as though I have imported by myself the goods, and in a document for presenting the goods to the Custom Manifest, it was stated that “there is a bank warranty”, which means that somehow, some bank promised to the Sofia custom to pay for all my imported goods custom obligations to some limit, while I have not required any warranty. This means that any good might have been added to the empty list and imported with my signature, had I signed the Manifest, and I managed so-far to retain the Declaration as a partial proof. There is completely different procedure for a Post Office parcel and they, by law have written a correct Manifest. So there was a request for a wrong-content document (bank warranty) which is similar to Money Laundering, by chance, and I have a lot of enemies with writing the open letter for Slim and the Bulgarian Central Bankers to the European Commission and I see a lot of connections among them stated in the letter.

There were two protests with more then 100 000 in Hungary and Brussels in December as well as self-burning people from poverty in Bulgaria again. To explain these sociological underpinnings with Bulgaria EC prognosis for example (ec.europa.eu /economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2014_autumn/statistical_en.pdf):

There figures respectively for 2014 2015 2016 by indicators (comma separated)

GDP growth(yoy) 1.2,0.6,1.0

Potential GDP 1.5,1.6,1.6

Harmonised index of consumer prices -1.4, 0.4, 1.0

Total employment -0.3,-0.2, 0.3

Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-), general government (as a percentage of GDP -3.6, -3.7, -3.9

Primary balance, general government ¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 1995-2016) -2.8,-2.8,-2.8

Gross debt, general government¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 1995-2016) 25.3, 26.8,30.2

II) So with very high budget deficit, the Government will try to compensate for high negative lending for three years, due probably to Austrian Banks new ratings after possible bail-in directive from 2015, substantial bad loans in 2014 (write-offs and losses) /just see what is written in rating reports for an idea/; also the Government Gross debt will increase to 30.2 for these three years and the rating of the country will also be changed as credit agencies decide. Even this prognosis, does not seem very credible. For this reason, the proposal for the Budget deficit correction from the new Government is much more risky. Assume, voting this year for 3.7% of GDP budget deficit, and the next for 3% of GDP, what we know for Aggregate Demand curve slope, considering that we have as deflation and VAT incomes decrease? Once Chobanov said that deflation and growth are quite strange data for him.

For such case as Bulgaria, Romania (Balkans) CEE, it is relevant to see Balances of Commercial Banks in Greece and Hungary for example in view of their ratings, to have an idea of the Austrian and Greece banks evaluation, if they do not change ownership in the future. e.g erstebank.hu/en/financials for balance dynamics and erstegroup.com/en/Investors/Ratings for ratings.

See Raiffeizen ECB stress test (end of 2003 https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/comprehensive/html/index.en.html) and there market capitalization now markets.ft.com /research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=RBI:VIE as well the stess-test threshold by ECB.

See what is the rating of Bulgaria now, tradingeconomics.com /bulgaria/rating and consider the debt increase. See en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Bond_credit_rating for how Corporate Cumulative Historic Default Rates increase for Non-investment grade speculative. Usually the companies have lower ratings than countries. What this means for banks, is obvious from Greece and Hungarian commercial Banks balances, there is also substantial external private debt. Consider also the quantitative theory for money that p*Q=M*V. I think for change in M (as envisaged by EC prognosis in credits, which should correspond to deposits /big deposits are not warranted by EU legislation and look for high rating banks/), initially there is change in Q. So make your own calibration for expected change in product. en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Price%E2%80%93specie_flow_mechanism “Using a theory called the quantity theory of money, Hume argued that in countries where the quantity of money increases, inflation would set in and the prices of goods and services would tend to rise while in countries where the money supply decreases, deflation would occur as the prices of goods and services fell.”

(2) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - See Vivacom Mobile Subscribers at period end (in thousands 2014) 2 556(Dec13) 2 594(Mar14) 2 677(Jun14) 2 809(Sep14) to see acceleration of acquisition... http://s2.vivacom.bg/files/financial_reports/53/document/Vivacom_results_KPIs_Q3_2014.pdf

- “Клиентите на абонаментните програми на GLOBUL продължиха да се увеличават през третото тримесечие на годината и достигнаха близо 2.8 милиона, с 4% повече от същия период на миналата година”. “Общите приходи на GLOBUL за третото тримесечие на 2014 г. намаляха със 1.3% в сравнение на същия период от предходната година” telenor.bg/bg/node/27702

Mtel revenues then should have an effect of including remaining-to-the-end-of-contract -payments at once for the last Q 2014 of leaving customers (because of Vivacom promotions). So Q3 2014 93.7 mill EUR revenues should include this effect. Then calculate according to your average bill (of people you know) how many are really capable-of-paying Mtel clients at the end of September and see how Vivacom and Globul new clients increase with acceleration. Networks usually have level (critical mass), after which they quickly decline (if there is a reason e.g. bad brand, high prices to incomes). Imagine some of your friends move to another operator – so it is cheaper for you to switch as well. See queues in Malls for leaving and new customers.

The Potential GDP in EC prognosis, however increases a lot to provide an opportunity for such substantial deficit or to keep the people away from protests (so typical for some years now), but I think employers and labor syndicates in Bulgaria, do Lucas critique to Government and strive for sustainable future for them and their kids without unnecessary debt. Is this geopolitics in EC forecasts, to look very risky, probably not optimal path for the economy of Bulgaria to stay without protest, so typical for EU last week in Hungary and Brussels or to keep the bad loans growth relatively low at the expense of country future? Do the calibration, see envisaged employment to have an idea how likely is this scenario.

Georgi Chinkov