Leading Indicators

For aggregated main (according to me) features see Russia, China, India growth for last 10 years, their currency reserves, See USA, EU, Russia, China, India Money growth (over GDP growth, over inflation index in view of M*V=P*Q quantitative theory of money), See in graphs Budget Debt and Deficit, as well as Labor Cost growth over Productivity for Competitiveness, check also CA surplus for 10 years and future Capital Flows.

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For aggregated main (according to me) features see Russia, China, India growth for last 10 years, their currency reserves, See USA, EU, Russia, China, India Money growth (over GDP growth, over inflation index in view of M*V=P*Q quantitative theory of money), See in graphs Budget Debt and Deficit, as well as Labor Cost growth over Productivity for Competitiveness, check also CA surplus for 10 years and future Capital Flows.

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by Georgi Chinkov

This is an attempt to write a contemporary and valid and critical Elements of Theory of Everything for the World in the overlapping domains of Economics , Sociology , Finance , IT , Cryptology , Artificial Intelligence , Data Science with real examples and facts based on my case with E C in 6 parts and data over models

1 Introduction

Remember my words, name and forecasts … I do not do this for money, only for rational expectations and truth in C E E and B a l k a n s and their better endangered future . It looks that people trust me a lot . The models , I apply are innovative and I would like to thank Coursera professors for their courses and contributions in A I , economics , Marketing and Data Science . . . I have now some 7 certificates out of top 2o universities in the world so knowledge matters . Study kids .

A Post answer :

I studied at C E U in 2004 Economics M A .

I have to excuse to the ordinary Hungarians. It happened they to swear us on the street. Since then. the Hungarians has not achieved back their G D P level and they are a clever nation, You know for their foreign currency denominated debt and this is not their mistake.

C E E students now work for E C B   E C  W B  U S a and there is adverse selection and behavioral risk in that I think, Bruce Willice in a good movie says : What could we have done now, if the  machine was made by the cheapest Chinese particles 

The paradox is that E C now has some adverse selection and  behavioral risk employees , while the China has grown economically some 1o time for 2o years . For these 2o , 25 years Japan had very low growth , inflation and interest rates and could not achieve growth so far. It went to even Q E for smoothing without much success. You see where E U and U S A are going now.

So it is simple knowledge, marketing, trust, that drives world in the long run. The Data are trusted , not  Manuel. It is insane to go for war, when U S A EU  Japan are with high difficult to sustain debt and cannot apply ordinal monetary policy, but risky Q E .

China has been economy number 1 a century or so ago and with Russia they have enough knowledge and weapons and war and killing innocent people is unnecessary

Well swear and curse or cheat  . but think for competing in markets at some stage 

Please have a look at Tele Austria Financial Results from last Q , in view of Money Laundering risk of and then latter the results of their competitors in Bulgaria , Croatia , Austria to verify the truth . See their customers , and their movement according to queues we saw in Bulgaria M alls last 4 5 months with a strategy similar to price war by a competitor and consider the critical mass of a network , after which it declines fast . See m t e l google searches against competitors , and similar web Internet visits as you aggregate all sites .

Read the following text to see how many times there were warnings last quarter , who may profit or is in a difficult financial situation and who should take the responsibility . Make your own research via survey to verify real market shares .

If somebody has asked Commissioner J u n c - k e r for Money Laundering risks as a proof , as a result of many warnings , made by me in Internet and Facebook , there may be legal consequences for E C, if not , please ask him now for a serious case to be investigated . I know I have enemies in E C with such statements .

I also wrote for the risk of buying private bonds , before the monetary policy has been changed . The risk was with Austrian banks bonds , which may become speculative and the cost would have been for the public . Austrian foreign hold financial , government and private bonds are substantial risk for the not very high evaluated western banks if they hold these bonds .

2 E C Complaint Open Letter and main concepts for Data and Economics

I will ask the EC to monitor as Carefully , as their recent report on the vulnerabilities of the Bulgarian owned Banks in the Bulgarian banking system recently, the 8 bln euro contract for 3 year debt of the Bulgarian Finance Minster ( it is strange to be agreed for several year in advance and there should be some reason for this ) and the Bulgarian foreign reserves hold by EU banks for the currency board. We had last year the case of a major Bulgarian Banker hiding abroad. Major Austrian and Greece Banks assets, and this test should include also their international assets according to assets volume, were verified in the first step of the Stress Test by E C B in 2o13 for one year and the institution risks its reputation if the data prove to be incorrect. as E U banks are involved with these big money , for Bulgaria , and as these money are existence funds for millions Bulgarians, it is strange, the Bulgarian owned banks to be criticized. The facts are correct, but there are also a lot of bad loans in C E E and Balkans, some of which increasing recently. There are 2o14 substantial losses in EBRD, Raiffeisen, ERSTe . . . and for some loans to be bad there are necessary several months so we will see the real effect of Russian currency devaluation in 2o15 beginning, as usually in history, there is a reason and trigger, and nobody is shaking the boat, but there is a storm. See exports, inflation, see industrial production, see sentiments in US , eU, China, Russia ...

So these not so big money, I mentioned , for the European Commission, cannot compensate their losses from high interest spread differentials in C E E for several years , wrong industrial organization leading to low growth and innovation. There is no fresh water economics with knowledge human capital, agents appropriating their innovation in private good. The is only salt water economics with high and increasing debts , maybe unsustainable, and quantitative easing in the euro zone. So there will be only social tragedy in Bulgaria, and reputation consequences for the European Commission and European Banks with high leverage and low capitalization now.

I understand that deposits are leaving the banks , downgraded , on or under speculative rating , as the interest is not enough to cover the risk of non-guaranteed deposits, but the classical role of the Central Bank is to be more knowledgeable than the citizens , and with monetary policy to correct their risk taking behavior by determining low or high interest rate. Well citizens pay for this interest rate, but we do not like GDP volatility and instability. as the crisis so far was for several years, and many people lost their human capital due to low employment in a complicated , requiring computer skills economy , the utilization of production capacity looks to be high enough the EU economy to be close to its steady state. So increasing public debt close to 1oo% of GDP , and the quantitative easing for answering to the economic shock of breaking relations with Russia and China will decrease future growth prospects in EU in any union future configuration, let alone the EU bank losses to be compensated with high budget deficits in C E E and Balkans. There should be some historical responsibility, the world will not end tomorrow, it may not even end in 1oo years if we stop global warming, and it is supposed to end in some 3 billion years according to science.

The last time when money mass increased a lot in the eurozone to accept C E E countries, there were substantial investments that, in combination with high interest rate latter, lead to slow capital formation and lack of innovation, and low growth in C E E and EU for years. Well, as Greenspan said with high leverage the asset bubbles lead to financial crisis due to animal spirit. The correct approach for a connected economy seems to be, according to ensemble models in artificial Intelligence to have workers with human capital and opened to information to vote for the correct decisions. Then with some economics we need competition and workers motivation somehow, still market seems to be the best solution so far. Europe is like the communist block before its break up, with Command economy, price rigidities and low human capital and motivation. Not occasionally, Intelligence is so popular topic and fas cism means organization as Germans say. It is completely your fault that you have forgotten your values for knowledge, employment, for innovation, for market economy . . . It was cool and and tricky, but it seems empirics rejects bluffing in Game Theory ( content is king ) and the important values are fundamentals, data, science as collected true knowledge. Budget deficit and quantitative easing or cheating seems to be the wrong way and lets see if Russia GDP per capita in ppp ( l 25ooo USD ) will not cross european some ( 35ooo USD ) and declining fast in recent years.

Dear Readers and Journalists,

I will ask one more time the president of the european Commission, E C not to make attempts to violate my property and human rights and that there will be consequences of these activities. It is clear that such an institution has the power and tools though their Intelligence and Companies or another form of documents abuse to cheat against me or my relatives and these crimes are very serious, and may be well concealed. Will anybody believe that I, as your opponent, by chance has been punished. Well is it occasional that a person is involved in scandals with espionage and companies taxes? So people opinion is that you've crossed the line, see Lampedusa case or Charlie Hebdo opinions in FB or Internet (big data shows something today and we the public have also some information and rights, democracy... ) everybody is aware now of the facts I've revealed since 2oo9 when I worked for the Bulgarian National Bank, that the researchers I mention in this text took on purpose wrong decision, mentioned that they are ruled by Austrian registered Banks and that there was recently a case of a big B G Bank for which the taxpayers paid. How to trust these people from now onwards? There is surveillance of my Internet activity ( M a C In routers, broken encryption, Sno wden ). BNB case is the reason for attempts for inventing crimes and cheating me.

The EU companies business in C E E are not prosperous due to interest rate differentials and not good enough understanding of products and customers, see market capitalizations. I do not want to work for companies as Tele Austria, because I am qualified with Data Science with Distinction from Washington with certificate, analytics from Johns Hopkings, summer schools from Madrid, Brussels … some 7 certificates, in top 2o universities. It is not appropriate that a manager of another EU company to visit my house to say that “they will have cartels as long as the Bulgarian country is weak” or that “the manager of M t e l has invested so much in me that I should stay there...” or that “there is a way my vision to improve, if I agree to stay in M t e l company” for some 7ooeUR wage after I have invested 25o ooo USD equivalent of education. or my M t e l manager to push me to work with the company Data Warehouse or to be responsible for the customer service mill budget, while I was there a statistician.

Please investigate my case as you search in Internet, F B for posts.

Now consider the impact of the austria Gross external Debt some 5 9 4 bn eUR ( eCB ) on EU economy in view of top 2o banks capitalization of some 1 3 7 9 US billion according to banks daily website in 2o14. So there is a good reason for senior involvement in the case. Nobody will be happy with 9 1 % government Gov Debt to G D P, quantitative easing, deflation, dangerous leverage and quite substantial exposer to C e e with not motivated employees, with low human capital, low employment and lack o trust to EU institutions. Nobody will believe tomorrow that my human rights or property right are violated by chance or that there is a case of Money Laundering in Tele austria, after all warnings from me and nobody will be aware again as in the espionage or incomes tax scandal in Luxembourg. I understand that the risk is high, in view of the low Banks capitalization and substantial leverage ( animal spirit theory by G reens pan ). So property rights violation or abuse of market companies is not contributing to productivity. Let Bulgarian employees in E C decide if they are going to work there for high wages when there is decline for E U from incomes from Bulgaria from cooper mines, banks, Teles... and only cheap talk ( game theory term ) for EU funds. So do not take the money of some 3 o o K kids on the street and other 2 o o K as the current budget is with the maximum allowed deficit 3 % and the rating is Speculative , plus shocks in Russia and Greece. I will never work for companies that are supported by EU as C C H B C or Tele austria or B u l s a t com. My sms in Tele austria were delayed often to 5 pm, which is a sign for surveillance. Se also which communications of business and government are provided by Tele austria, ping the IP address

3 the case of Austria and Greece and its importance

Austria scenario in view of Greece

“For those few, who own so much, to so many”

I will ask the European Commissioners not to violate my human and property rights for revealing inconvenient information for eU. Well the data looks to be important at this stage. The consequences of attacks against me of my former colleagues of the Bulgarian National Bank B N B Research ( before 2oo9 crisis and their involvement in the crisis ) , the recent case of a closed big commercial bank in Bulgaria and of course the risks of their future activities for the economy is making it very likely that there will be further attempts for inventing crimes for me, or violating seriously my human and property rights or those of my relatives. Some examples are wrong Customs declaration, as an entity within the Bulgarian ministry of Finance with invented bank warranty . . . and other attempts for cheating by Tele austria as surveillance with SMS delays for 5 pm most days or assigning budget responsibility for millions as a Statistician in the Teles ( you may search for my name and case in Internet to see more details ) . Some B N B researchers are involved with eCB and EC or now work there.

So the Risk is that the following european Banks have market value which is too low compared with the risks from Greece bailout, Russia currency devaluation, other Balkans economies with high government debts and deficits ( low growth, high interest rate spreads ), Swiss peg cancellation, other EU economies with high debt as Spain or Italy. . . and all this amid world declining commodity prices ( oil, cooper, cotton ) and other deteriorating Leading Indicators. There are also social tensions in EU due to unemployment, wage rigidities, lack of trust according to eurobarometer or even more to other EU data sources as FB pages – see EP vs Wikileaks likes for example. Check Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loan for eU, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Serbia, Cee from : datamarket.com/data/set/1470

Well, only these big EU banks, have low market value and substantial assets, which is high risk for eU, due to leverage and exposure to Cee and Balkans trough austria and Greece bonds, hold straight or through other banks by these EU banks.

So one reason for the ecb policy to buy non guaranteed public bonds at this stage with quantitative easing by ecb is the following analysis? Some austrian bank bonds are investment grade at this stage, and may soon be speculative. Some of the other mentioned banks, also are in review due to some of the biail-out and other factors. Well when a bank changes its rating from baa / bbb to ba / bb to b / b ( i call it “ the lion's jump ” ) the cumulative historic default rates ( in percent ) changes from 1o.29 to 29.93 to 53.72 percent according to wikipedia which should be compensated with lower bond price.

Is it likely that Tele austira to risk with money laundering although, i've warned many times the president of the european commission for such a risk in written form in-front of all readers and journalists, and these are your kids, who are in danger? If somebody has asked in=front of public last quarter, then this is an evidence for disregard of basic professional commitments of the european commission, and disregard and discrimination of eu kids in case some day money laundering by Tele austira is proved. There are now, two scandals for spying and substantial taxes around former luxembourg PM. Well there is also risk for eu banks on the other side when one compares austria and greece external debts to their banks capitalization and further their assets. / the gross domestic product ( gdp ) in the euro area was worth 12749.93 billion us dollars in 2o13. TRaDINGeCoNoMICS.CoM /

Bank / FT Market Cap ( as of 1 Feb 2o15 ) / assets according to banksdaily.com/topbanks/europe/marketcap2o14.html

Credit agricole Sa / 27.22 bn eUR / Total assets: eUR 1,7o6 billion ( as of December 31, 2o13 )

Credit Suisse Group aG / 31.26 bn CHF / Total assets: CHF 872.6 billion ( as of December 31, 2o13 )

Deutsche Bank aG / 35.59 bn eUR / Total assets : eUR 1,718 billion ( as of December 31, 2o14 )

ING Groep / 42.9o bn eUR / Total assets : eUR 1,o81 billion ( as of December 31, 2o13 )

Societe Generale / 28.85 bn eUR / Total assets : eUR 1,235 billion ( as of December 31, 2o13 )

UniCredit Spa / 3o.69 bn eUR / Total assets : eUR 889.6 billion (as of J u ne 3o, 2o13 )

See Greece high debt tradingeconomics.com/greece/governmentdebttogdp and labor costs crisis dynamics with some 3o 4o percentage points decline. tradingeconomics.com/greece/labourcosts. See employed persons decline with 1 mill tradingeconomics.com/greece/employedpersons to ratio of all population of some 33 % .

( “ ( GDP ) in Greece was worth 241.72 billion US dollars in 2o13 ” ” Government Debt to GDP of 174.9o percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2o13 ” www.tradingeconomics.com this was some 421 bill USD in 2o13 )

See austria wages third in the world by P P P USD in 2oo9 according to wikipedia. org wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_wage labor cost growth over productivity since then as you find austria data from facebook.com / world.data.science . See their G D P and G N I difference, and have in mind their substantial external investments ( what this means ? ) . tradingeconomics. com /austria/grossnationalproduct . Then compare their productivity with USa for 1o years . See recent unemployment facebook.com/World.Data.Science as click on eU1 and then on BULGARIA ASTRIA DASHBOARD and Vienna stock exchange decline ( production prices , consumer and producer sentiments ) ( employed ratio of all population of some 41 %, compared with 44 % for eurozone ) .

There should be price rigidities as wages decline slowly , but employment faster usually as an established fact due to some frictions .

See Austria Gross external Debt 594 bn eUR sdw. ecb. europa. EU /quickview.do?SeRIeS_KeY=268.ST1.Q.aT.N.8.99o.N.a1.e to their GDP 323 bn eUR . Statistik. at/web_en /statistics/national_accounts/gross_domestic_product/annual_data/index.html . Monetary and Financial Institutions have 228 bln eUR external Liabilities according to oenb. at /isaweb/report.do?lang=eN&report=12.1 . See then the ratings now of Raiffeisen investor. Rbinternational .com /index.php?id=514&L=1 and erste bonds ( see the interest for subordinated debt so far from crediting agencies websites ) . Then have in mind , that some of the recent events were too fast to be calculated in ratings ( or still to be estimated more precisely ): Russia currency devaluation, Swiss Frank peg , Greece election shocks , Bail out Directive . Think also for Greece Bank Stress Test , see what is happening in the balance sheets of Banks in Romania , Hungary , Greece with speculative ratings ( deposits in particular and think for the price of austria bonds ) . See also their Bad loans from last Q to all Loans . This is the reason for the equity decline .

See also Tele austria , M t e l customers favorite sites and topic cloud ( competitors ) in similar web site. See there competitor acquisitions previous Q ( V I v a c o m and T e l e n or ) , and we will see this one . So Tele austria debt is also substantial and there is a critical level in networks after which the customers decline very fast ( due to e g bad connotation brand or high prices ) .

If there is a 30% chance a person to be aware of any serious case ( or crime ) as mentioned here, then the probability ( if not related cases ) not to know of any of them is simply 2.7%, which in statistics is a result conclusive in most cases. There are cases in Law ( a controlled system in EU ) when the probability is considered for a proof for a crime. Otherwise, would anybody believe the EU administration is so disorganized not to be aware of its own activities, how the data accessed is controlled in an organization for trillions and what is the confidence in your fairness in public in that case? I mentioned that inventing crimes for me or endangering my relatives is not a solution for you. Would people in EU believe for the third time on the same answer? Isn't it time for a change in EU Commission, which looks nearly the same as the previous one and is related to cases which may be classified as crimes by many legislations? When the legislative, executive, law, monetary authorities in EU act together is optimal, but democracy is endangered ( there are signs for connections ). Is the support for EU in Eu barometer real as it looks quite suspicious and I challenge data scientist to use creatively reproducible data so that there will be an objective truth, which to be presented understandably to the public.

The same is valid for related companies in a monopolistic industrial structure. The profits are higher for some period, but there is an inefficiency of losing human capital, innovation. Let alone the if the companies act together with governments. Unfair solutions are not optimal (and deceiving contracts are not valid). For the last, see Hungary economic growth for some 10 years with loans in s_w_iss francs or interest differentials in C_EE showing their perceptions. What is the level of bad loans in the C_EE region and what is happening with Greece Banks, Austrian Banks with investments in C_EE (capitalization, credit rating)? What is happening with deposits in some countries such as Greece, Hungary, Romania in banks with speculative rating ( can somebody pay interest to cover this risk for non-guaranteed deposits ).

Let see, what will happen with RUB devaluation shock, expected deposit outflow in C_EE (conditional on speculative credit rating for Austrian Banks), the acceptance of bail out rules in some EU countries at the end of this and the beginning of next year. Just check the required interest rate for speculative ratings of banks, and consider the substantial external debt of Austria. Consider that for a possible outflow of deposits as observed in mentioned cases already, there must be borrowed new capital at very high interest rate if the ratings are speculative. Who is responsible for the corruption scandals in Austria this year (there are cases discussed by public in Croatia, Bulgaria .., and I think a pattern with problems for such companies). What is the level of wages in Austria and what is the highest Educational Austrian institution rating in the world? What is their productivity relative to USA (have in mind additional C_EE investments product) in dynamics? What is happening with Telecom Austria site visits for example in Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria lately according to similar_web. What are the sites most-often visited by their customers and the competitor words related to their Internet activity according to similar_web. Interpret these data in view of concepts as price-war and deep pocket? What is the debt of Telecom Austria and their employees and what if the financial results of Telecom Austria are completely different from Internet activity, and their competitors customer acquisitions. Is there a critical network level and queues in shops according to theory? Have in mind, I have clearly stated the case in-front of Commissioner Juncker on Internet and complaints to institutions as a case for suspected money laundering. The answer for unawareness of the case is a classical one, but unlikely statistically in view of these three events:

1. wikipedia /wiki/ Luxembourg_ Leaks

2. telegraph /news /worldnews/ europe/ luxembourg/ 10929711/ Jean- Claude- Juncker- the- lurid-spy- scandal- that- forced- him- from- office

3. My case, stated in complaints to EC and many posts on Internet (I am aware of the risks I take with such information and the attitude of EC Commissioners). To quote “It is not me, it is the Government that should pledge guilty. This is an idea for which I am prepared to live, but if need to be, I am prepared to die” (solve your problem with me).

So the pattern is to invent a crime for Snowden or Wikileaks Assange or their colleagues claim “I am ready to shot a bullet in his head”. I am not responsible for the wrong decisions taken by the Bulgarian Governments, the loans provided by my former colleagues in the Bulgarian National Bank Research trough the Commercial Banks, the level of Bank Supervision, their game with joining the Banking Union only after problem with some particular banks. They should leave their job, and be responsible for their deeds, and I am not responsible for their crimes (many in favor of EU countries). I should not be subject of your illegal digital surveillance and crime invention, which turns into classic again (MAC addresses in routers, broken Google, Facebook encryptions...). So there is a pattern of related institutions, intelligence abuse and businesses in EU. And I insist that it is even not statistically likely to be by chance or coincidence! Several related instances with digital crimes and response with crime inventions by the Western world with complete support from citizens! And “If we do not win the support of EU citizens, this will be the last European Commission”. How European Commission Employees use sensitive data for trillions of value and treat for EU security and you answer, that you are not aware of your policies? Is it established fact for economic growth, that fair legislation and its implementation is necessary for the economic trust in contracts? Intelligence is intelligence, critical products are critical products and industries, but competition is competition and law is law. You made the mistake to violate human rights of privacy publicly (encryption abuse, supposed back-doors in operating systems according to Snowden and Anonymous), to violate competitive structure (Taxes, influence on Bulgarian Central Bankers) … are legal and monetary decisions independent and objective?

This is complete disregard of Chapter I for Economics and there is not substantial economic growth in EU this decade. To cover the story you tried to involve me with the Bulgarian Central Bankers crimes, Financial Ministry in Bulgaria Crimes (e.g. Customs misleading documents), Telecom Austria involvement with responsibility for the budget !!!, while I was a statistician as an employee there, attempts to push my relatives to sue me for mentally ill for revealing your crimes and again answering to my complaints that you are unaware and not legally responsible. Don't you see the society disrespect to your answers? Do you think that it is not your fault for the EU crisis? Are you going to diverge from the principles of economic growth with attempting to involve people in crime after crime ...Is this an endless game … Is there not coming back from your human, economic and legal rights abuse? Then, there will be not EU, and very likely CEE countries will leave … the protests are not occasional and there is a fairness game … CEE people find the high interest rates for unfair and are ready to default... What is the same game with Russian Economy and their weapons???

Just see the Growth in Russia, China, India for the last 10-20 years. See their Current Account surplus (first two especially) and foreign exchange reserves. See EU lost decade and wage growth over inflation and productivity for 7 years! What is happening with productivity competition?

The monopolistic structure in EU companies and relation, similar to a Command Economy paradoxically (investorwords /951/ command_ economy) lead to inefficiency in the world, which seems to be empirically observed compared to China and Russia. There are serious over-investments in EU, with monetary expansion and high sovereign debts from the beginning of the century, at the beginning of the crisis in 2009. So there is a decline in investments growth, loans do not increase in EU, very low employment, low human capital and reputation of the European Commission, which is not accepted well in society. The CEE high price for your capital, the resources of these countries were not enough for your Western growth so you tried acquiring Ukraine and sanction Russia with USA and lower oil prices. Think for crisis in Turkey with currency devaluation, and think for Russia currency devaluation effect on the Europe, CEE economy with growth in Unemployment (Protest) and even now very high bad-loans. What will happen with exposed Austrian banks, the Austrian external debt (price and default), other exposed banks.

Your answer that you are unaware for your Geo-politics will not be acceptable. I am sure you already have plans for dealing with the banks in CEE, and social protests now and in the future and I do not expect your actions to be in favor of people, but your capital whenever possible. EU government debt is very high, wages increased a lot recently (compare them with inflation and productivity growth), Employment is very low for some years, Skills of people are lost, Debt leverage is high so instead of cooperating for the important world issues among EU, China, Russia, India, USA or even against other countries with them, EU product per person is quite away from USA and not so away from Russia in PPP statistics and EC chose to confront with Russia, China...That lead to oil price decrease, but see also other commodities prices (e.g. cooper or cotton) so the consequences of your aggression are slow-down in the world or even decline from this quarter in Russia, China (monetary policy, CA, budget), EU.

written by Georgi Chinkov. More Details, Support me as you like me at Facebook pages/GeorgiChinkov ..

More Details for my Case (Georgi Chinkov and European Istitutions):

(If there is 2015 deficit of 2.3 BLN BGN for 18.24 BLN BGN incomes for 20.54 BLN BGN expenditure, then after 2-3 years with deficits from 2014 onwards (according to http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/eory/2014/11/26/2426982_deficit_i_oshte_dulgove_v_bjudjet_2015/), the debt will increase, but probably even this year Bulgaria credit rating may be speculative. So many companies and banks will also be with speculative ratings and you may check the default rate in wikipedia, often in such banks in Hungary or Greece the deposits decline and with currency board there will be a decline in GDP as well according to quantitative theory of money for a few years. So the budget policy may push the economy in crisis. When they realize what has been done and the deficit is paid back less then 16 BLN BGN expenditure will be possible compared with 20.5 BLN BGN in 2015. Provided tax rate are increased, less of taxes will be collected. There will also be interest for the new loan. So it looks like a stupid bluffing for the future of the country. Why is that? Because EU is loosing support in Bulgaria? Why EU is delaying its funds for Bulgaria and there is only verbal support, do they have reasonable doubts for their support in CEE?)

I) Last week 6.11.2014, by coincidence, I received the reciprocal reply to my letter for a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) you may see at Facebook.com/pages/GeorgiChinkov In particular, I had announced to the Sofia Customs in Sept. 2014 that, when I've received a cheap ipcamera and separately a cheap minipc bananapi from china, they were announced from the online stores for lower prices and I have to pay additional VAT.

I received a letter from Sofia Customs and they tried to make me start a new procedure, as though I have imported by myself the goods, and in a document for presenting the goods to the Custom Manifest, it was stated that “there is a bank warranty”, which means that somehow, some bank promised to the Sofia custom to pay for all my imported goods custom obligations to some limit, while I have not required any warranty. This means that any good might have been added to the empty list and imported with my signature, had I signed the Manifest, and I managed so-far to retain the Declaration as a partial proof. There is completely different procedure for a Post Office parcel and they, by law have written a correct Manifest. So there was a request for a wrong-content document (bank warranty) which is similar to Money Laundering, by chance, and I have a lot of enemies with writing the open letter for Slim, to Bulgarian Central Bankers to the European Commission and I see a lot of connections among them stated in the letter. I expect similar violations with property rights, human rights from your organization.

When, I've been working, for the Bulgarian Central Bank around 2008, I visited a conference on Human Capital by the Austrian Central Bank. For fireplace diner meeting, of the Austria Financial Minister and Austria Central Bank Governor, an Austrian professor was on the one side and a person presenting himself as Chief of Security of the Luxembourg Central Bank on the other. So the Austrian professor claimed that he is great friend with a Bulgarian governor and insisted several times … “you have to pay to commercial bankers to retain them !!!” Several main Bulgarian Commercial Banks are registered in Austria. To present my view for the conference in the European elite society style, as Sacher cake is not exactly a nice cake with some cream, but pretty expensive, so the Austria society at the moment does not avail with substantial human capital, as they rely mostly on CEE investments with a lot of external debt, and banks with high interest rate spread that prevents growth in CEE, but check the banks external debt from Statistical Office. Security and Operations is not enough for prosperity, as there is a lot of information, and we are scarce in analytics.

Well, Austria seems to overfit seriously in their traditions, this is not the correct model and not occasionally your universities are not rated well. I think, even the names of people will mean something for models with such overfitting. It is not occasional Salieri poisoned Mozart, his understanding for the world is first biased, and then he should be overfitting in his elementary understanding. For Salieri, it is complete shock to understand the changing circumstances. Therefore, the current economic crisis in Austria is due to wrong real economy perhaps, and there is no need to take risks but to start thinking for knowledge in the economy, not gamble with hundreds of billions external private and public debt. For example read the rating agencies reports for Austrian Banks, see their market value and bailout assumptions. See also the ratings of CEE and Balkan countries and their economies in view of new sovereign loans, I will present the case of Bulgaria in two lines latter. I would never work for a European Union Supported company in Bulgaria as Telecom Austria Mtel, as support makes the companies with internal market ineffective (no external competition as other IT industries), which is clear from their results and there is always some influence from supporters and some hidden idea. I would expect similar results for EBRD supported Bulsatcom.

I stated the theory of Marx that when capital requires constant return, workers will protest as their wages decline as stated in Oxford Economics Dictionary especially true if we assume monopolistic structures. There were 2 bestsellers for reminding the Marx theory recently in UK. So consistently, there were two protests with more then 100 000 in Hungary and Brussels last year as well as self-burning people from poverty in Bulgaria again. To explain these sociological underpinnings with Bulgaria EC prognosis for example (ec.europa.eu /economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2014_autumn/statistical_en.pdf):

There figures respectively for 2014 2015 2016 by indicators (comma separated)

GDP growth(yoy) 1.2,0.6,1.0

Potential GDP 1.5,1.6,1.6

Harmonised index of consumer prices 1.4, 0.4, 1.0

Total employment 0.3,0.2, 0.3

Net lending (+) or net borrowing (), general government (as a percentage of GDP 3.6, 3.7, 3.9

Primary balance, general government ¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 19952016) 2.8,2.8,2.8

Gross debt, general government¹ (as a percentage of GDP, 19952016) 25.3, 26.8,30.2

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II) So with very high budget deficit, the Government will try to compensate for high negative lending for three years, due probably to Austrian Banks new ratings after possible bail-in directive from 2015, substantial bad loans in 2014 (write-offs and losses); also the Government Gross debt will increase to 30.2 for these three years and the rating of the country will also be changed as credit agencies decide. For such case as Bulgaria, Romania (Balkans) CEE, it is relevant to see Balances of Commercial Banks in Greece and Hungary for example in view of their rating to have an idea of Austrian and Greece banks evaluation, if they do not change ownership in future. The Potential GDP, however increases a lot to provide opportunity for such substantial deficit or to keep the people away from protests (so typical for some years now), but I think employers and labor syndicates in Bulgaria, do Lucas critique to Government and strive for sustainable future for them and their kids without unnecessary debt. Is this geopolitics in EC forecasts, to look very risky, probably not optimal path for the economy of Bulgaria to stay without protest, so typical for EU last week in Hungary and Brussels or to keep the bad loans growth relatively low at the expense of country future? Do the calibration, see envisaged employment to have an idea how likely is this scenario.

Another interesting topic is digital surveillance in EU and private companies participation as in USA Snowden case, especially in view of EU support for telecommunication companies. I recommend the CEBIT presentation for analytics and tools overview (cebit.de /en/conferences/conferenceprogram/topspeakersofcebit2014/mikkohypponen.xhtml) e.g. PRISM, and definition of privacy as human right (generally, one cannot sell his privacy and the idea for required localization by telecoms is not correct) classcentral.com /mooc/1492/edxengri1280xwiretapstobigdataprivacyandsurveillanceintheageofinterconnection For example, many of my SMS for Email were delayed to the end of the day for few years in Mtel, Telecom Austria and the Email may have been decrypted. There are sometimes other MAC addresses in my router, when possible to be broken. It is not clear how one my request for paying some 20 EUR VAT turned into a case with Bank Warranty Custom Manifest to be offered to me to sign. Is it occasionally now after writing the open letter for EC, Telecom Austria, Bulgarian Central Bankers and is there some information leakage?

When studying in Soros CEU Budapest some students went to EU institutions, some were admitted for a PhD in Stockholm, and other good universities and many, from Baltic Countries, work for Sweden Central Bank, and Sweden has some banks in Baltics, and some went to Austria, as Austria has banks in CEE. I already mentioned that there is some self-selection model in CEU and who do not accept the conditions and negotiations pays his scholarship with labor as I explained in the letter. In this case it is not WB, ECB, IMF, EC some other central western bank that takes the responsibility, but Soros or some other wealthy person as Slim hypothetically. Well power is mainly knowledge, and for advanced countries and unions we talk for trillions sometimes, not billions. This is why institution as WB, ECB, IMF, EC, countries or unions rule the game. If Baltics or CEE, Balkans have some EU protests and are disappointed from EU, I think this policy is intrinsic for EU institutions for at least 10 years now, and it is not a coincidence but persistent policy and a belief under EU ideals unfortunately. It is capital that drives EU now and the protests and interests in Russia from Poland, to Latvia to Bulgaria or Serbia is not occasional. This is the reason for digital surveillance of my communications, attempt to violate my human right and make me work for Austrian or EU supported company or inventing me Customs documents, for which somebody may profit, or I will be blackmailed. I am sure, there will be further attempts by involved institutions and the responsibility is from the President of EC as my calculations are back of the envelop, but there is also an envelop theorem. I do not want risk taking in EU countries with a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner), but sustainable policy with accountability and democracy, which many people in Europe do not believe any more and go to protests.

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Will Commissioner Juncker be involved with a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) and how is Commissioner Juncker connected to the Bulgarian Central Bankers partisan politics?

Open letter, /First part/

Dear Readers and Journalists,

My name is Georgi Chinkov.

In view of the expected GDP slowdown/decline this Quarter 2014 (Q3 14 November data), I would like to state my case of abuse of my human rights and blackmailing by a network of European authorities so that the proper steps will be taken by the new commission if these great people wish to do so, and stop their myopic and abovelaw profit optimization. It is related with European Commission and Commissioner Juncker taking excessive risks because of loss aversion (not ready to decrease their wellbeing), even with some doubts for money laundering relations in Europe related with Carlos Slim acquiring Telecom Austria.

GDP is possibly declining or nonincreasing, because of inequality in Europe and lack of equal opportunities. Marx envisages in his theory a revolution, because the wealthy strive to keep their rate of return on capital, and so poor people wages decline, if there is slow technological progress.

Commissioner Juncker stated that this is the last commission if they do not manage to win back the trust of European people. This seems to be extremely important statement as there are not very clear facts e.g:

how THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: TREND graph stays stable after sharp decline (http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb8 p.10)

My case

Commissioner Junker, do not endanger my relatives, for my awareness of how EC “convinces” many CEE EC employees to steal from their countries for your Governments or Companies. I rejected, so solve your problem personally with me.

Do not involve me with the The Bulgarian central bankers from research or EBRD any more or the CEU students. Stop Digital Surveillance for my IT (smartphone, PC, router other MACs, Encryption), I do not think it is useful for your personal image or European Growth. Stop blackmailing me with people involved in EU institutions for committing crimes (I describe below) in your companies as Telecom Austria for concealing your organization crimes. It is not possible for you not to know these people or my case, as these people have access to confidential data in organizations as ECB, EC, EBRD as permanent or temporary employees.

(1) I worked for the Bulgarian Ministry of Finance with the EU Delegation on preaccession funds initially.

(2) Then in 2004, I studied Economics in Soros' CEU Budapest, from where many students went to ECB, the European Commission, EBRD. They thought us theories for cartels and creating crises with the statement “Nobody leaves unconvinced”.

(3) When I came back to Bulgaria, a CCHBC HR Manager (worked also for Council of Europe, UNDP) said that there is an Union behind Soros and I could pay my scholarship of 20 000 USD with working in an international company, where the blackmailing from European Authorities started.

(4) Then, I worked for the Research of the Bulgarian National Bank just before the 2009 crisis related with Kalin Hristov, Statti Stattev, Mariela Nenova, Rosen Rosenov (IMF), Andrey Vassilev, Stoevsky (ECB), Tsvetan Tsalinsky (EC,ECB), Karagyozova and they on purpose organized the crisis with providing a lot of cheap loans and the intention to increase later interest rate for profits, which led to low economic growth for the past 6 years and substantial bad loans as in CEE: e.g. Romania, Croatia...

(5) I worked up to recently in Telecom Austria (Mtel), for several years with the following attempts for involving me in crimes. /Telecom Austria is a company close to the European Authorities, check for EBRD loans and EU programs for them. There is also a loan for Bulsatcom from EBRD with the same schema. I've been a victim of surveillance by Telecom Austria with, stopping all my SMS during the day for a long period so that I will not check immediately my encryptionbroken Email for getting a job, where I am not endangered by their crimes. See also the sites Telecom Austria host for the Bulgarian Government and Banks in Bulgaria, this time for an idea what information they need to protect./

First, I had to work for three years overtime and during weekends to pay the blackmailing for my CEU “Scholarship”: 20 000 USD equivalent.

Then, Mtel introduced a billing system with wrong bills for several months, that led to more then a hundred thousand complaints and a crisis for the company. I had to calculate an equal percentage payback for all these complaints for weeks so that the customers will stay in the company, and in the end for so many work to safe them, Mtel added some 50 000 BGN in my calculations, so that, I will work for these money “free” for several year again. This has not happened as I noticed their crime.

Last Mtel Manager, tried to write in my responsibilities “their customer service budget to be absolutely correct and checked” while I am a statistician, not an accountant, which is completely misleading and an crime involvement. Then I left for their cheating, as well as the company is with such a bad image in Internet that customers are leaving.

Telecom Austria, which is a telecom, close to European Commission, was trying to involve me in a crime to conceal the Bulgarian National Bank Researchers crimes for creating the 2009 crisis. (e.g Stoevsky paper for Import that omits on purpose credits as an explanatory variable or Tsvetan Tsalinsky Economic Review that say that the high industry load before crisis means that there will be more investments...or Andrey Vassilev purposeful wrong assumptions in models for consumption smoothing in future).

Will Commissioner Juncker be involved with a possible Money Laundering by Telecom Austria (Carlos Slim major owner) and how is Commissioner Juncker connected to the Bulgarian Central Bankers partisan politics?

/Second part/

Open letter,

Dear Readers and Journalists,

My name is Georgi Chinkov.

I. Please now check Telecom Austria incomes in the third quarter 2014. Incomes seem quite high compared to previous quarter, even achieving growth on yearly basis, especially in countries with weak legislation application, so there are doubts for Money Laundering by the new owner Carlos Slim since now onwards.

For example this article from Economist, which is about over-reporting Mexico exports to USA with some 15%: economist /news/international/21601537tradeweakestlinkfightagainstdirtymoneyuncontained

as well as the fact that, former owner of Mtel, Cherney is wanted by Interpol for similar activity and many of Mtel employees have been in the company since then. interpol /notice/search/wanted/200921842

II. From external data: alexa, website visits for 2014 mtel.bg state surprising increase in interest contradictory to similar_web /website/mtel.bg which is difficult to manipulate

Telecom Austria was involved in two serious scandals lately for Managers manipulating shares and Peter Hochegger bribing politicians in Austria both leading to sentences.

I would like to ask Commissioner Juncker, as Telecom Austria was involved in surveillance, they tried to involve me in a crime with cheating several times for blackmailing me to conceal the Bulgarian Central Bank Researchers crimes, and European Commission Involvement with the Telecom Austria company, if Commissioner Juncker is aware for money laundering risk Telecom Austria and Carlos Slim is involved now in Europe? For the previous crimes, my memories are that some 4 000 datasets were investigated, and now there are also serious doubts with the surprising change in income trend for Q3 2014?

The main reason for this is that Austria has quite high budget deficit this year, and their major Banks as Erste and Raiffaizen are with prognoses for serious negative profits this year. There is also going to be the bail=in Directive from 2015 year and if you read their rating agencies reports some banks may be with speculative rating and very high interest on their obligations in future. The fact is that Austria has a substantial external debt of nearly twice their GDP (wikipedia.org /wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt). Their market valuations, already have these facts envisaged in some degree. So calculate what is expected for Austria household disposable income, with high government GDP share and high interest on obligations or deposits (e.g see balance sheets of banks in Hungary or Greece).

It is also interesting, what is the valuation of the Bulgarian banking sector in view of Raiffazen, OTP, Unicredit shares evaluation for example and their respective share in assets. Please consider that the budget deficit this year in Bulgaria should be about 4% (including for bank problems) if voted, and there is about 1% decline in nominal GDP envisaged for 2014 (expecting to see what will be the agencies rating later this year) (capital.bg /politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2014/10/27/2407945_bliznashki_vnasia_aktualizaciiata_na_bjudjeta_v/)(deflation, reduction in tax incomes)... to what extent will bad loans in Bulgaria increase and what this means for Bulgarian Banks Market Evaluation. For this reasons, it is likely risk to be taken as the recently Corporate Commercial Bank serious problems, or EUR 400 mn impairment in Mtel due to WACC with some 4.1 million subscribers Q3 2014 (Too high Subscriber base and too low ARPU some 6.2 EUR Q3 2014) and I would like to ask Commissioner Junker if he is aware for these Mtel Money Laundering risks?

The main profit for the European companies from now onwards, should be from the Cooper Mines in Bulgaria (Telecom are not very profitable, as actually Mtel is with very fast declining incomes for years, and bellow critical mass network due to high prices, bad brand connotation according to forums (critical network mass: continuing decline in their group and in bulgaria other telecoms); bad loans started to increase again lately although the substantial budget deficit...) and I am not sure they will be enough for net EU transfers. I think on some online news forums (with a million click per month) 80% would prefer Russian orientation due to poverty of BG people and greediness of western companies.

I've send complaints to the UN Office on Drugs and Crimes in Vienna, Vienna Prosecutors Office, Interpol and Europol for the risk Telecom Austria to be involved in Money Laundering in view of the liquidity and solvency problems the major Austria firms (banks and the telecom) might face – occasional or not the day before the Austria financial minister resigned (he signed the deal with Carlos Slim for Telecom Austria, if I remember correctly). Commissioner Juncker is completely aware of the situation with Telecom Austria as I've posted many times information on his Facebook page and European Commission and European Parliament, which have been deleted.

My lawyer advised me not to complain for such a topic in Bulgaria or I will be endangered, but in view of my involvement with the European institutions as the European Commission with their employees I've mentioned in the text so far, and their responses to my official complaint, that they are not responsible for the crimes on the territory of Bulgaria for some of which current EC are related, I would like to raise the issue if they are involved and responsible for Telecom Austria, as this is much less threatening for me and my relatives then the greedy, reckless and criminal geopolitics of the European Commission involving style revealed by Snowden but by EC.

Dear Journalists, please investigate my case for stories, I've posted in INTERNET that lead to this situation. My post have changed a lot of opinions, but also endanger me and my relatives.

Georgi Chinkov